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Growing risks
Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the third quarter of 2022 exceeded all forecasts with an estimated increase of 13.67 percent compared to a year ago, bringing the figure in the first nine months of the year to 8.83 percent. Inflation was still controlled below the set target (four percent per year). However, a global growth slowdown and rising risks of financial instability could affect Vietnam’s economic growth in 2023 and 2024.
Ramla Khalidi, resident representative of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) in Vietnam, said Vietnam has bright economic prospects, but risks are increasing.
Domestically, risks threaten the banking sector and bond market, which are especially sensitive to rapidly changing conditions in the real estate sector. In addition, the negative impact of climate change is expected to exert great pressure on agricultural production.
Dr. Tran Toan Thang, head of NCIF’s Industry and Enterprise Economic Forecasting Department, said inflation is currently not a big problem, but inflationary pressure is increasing. The risk of imported inflation is obvious due to the country’s dependence on imported raw materials and increasing exchange rate between the US dollar and Vietnamese dong under the pressure of a strong US dollar appreciation. A downward export trend in 2023 is also a distinct possibility due to falling demand. In the last months of the year, many businesses have faced difficulties in receiving export orders.
Two scenarios
NCIF suggests two economic growth scenarios for Vietnam in 2023. In the first scenario, Vietnam’s economy is forecast to expand by 6-6.2 percent with risk factors outweighing the established recovery trend in 2022. In the second scenario, Vietnam’s GDP growth is projected at 6.5-6.7 percent with unfavorable global conditions having little impact on the economy.
The chief economist of the Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BIDV), Can Van Luc, said three external factors will strongly affect Vietnam’s economy - global inflation and US inflation, the possibility of global economic recession and the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike.
The world economy is likely to fall into a slight recession next year, Luc predicted, adding that Vietnam’s economy will face challenges. To achieve the 6.5 percent GDP growth target in 2023, Vietnam needs to make greater efforts, Luc said.
Dr. Jonathan Pincus, senior international economist of UNDP, said export growth is still the most important factor affecting Vietnam’s economic growth in the long term.
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