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Phan Dung Khanh, investment advisory director of the Maybank Kim Eng Securities Company, said competition to raise interest rates is growing fiercer and projections of stagflation in major economies are becoming more prevalent. In this context, the prospects of Vietnam’s stock and real estate markets in the last half of the year are not bright, Khanh said.
However, investors will rely on factors with a positive impact on Vietnam’s stock market, such as the continued economic growth momentum and positive Q2 business results for industries when making their decisions. In addition, the government and management agencies are trying to stabilize commodity prices, especially gasoline, in order to achieve the set inflation target. The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) is continuing to maintain the interest rate level, while creating favorable conditions for customers to access credit.
Investors should be careful to preserve their investment portfolio’s value, Khanh said, adding that they should limit investment in speculative stocks.
The continued strict SBV control of real estate credit is expected to challenge the market. According to the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association, property companies are dependent on bank loans, corporate bonds and capital mobilized in advance from homebuyers. However, credit tightening for real estate continues, corporate bonds have frozen up, and individual customers have faced difficulties in accessing bank loans.
The real estate market is experiencing a lack of liquidity because many projects cannot be implemented, creating shortages. However, foreign investment inflows into real estate may increase, especially in the resort and industrial real estate.
Financial-banking expert Nguyen Tri Hieu said the VN-Index is expected to close the year at 1,436-1,614 points. Hieu added that among investment channels with long-term prospects, stocks top the list, followed by real estate, corporate bonds, deposits, gold and the US dollar.
In the current context, cash is still a priority and investors holding as much cash as possible have an advantage, while savings are also a good channel. The stock market is likely to move sideways, while the real estate market has yet to heat up again.
Many investors tend to buy gold to preserve their capital. Economists say that gold should only be considered a haven rather than a profitable channel. The world gold price has only increased by 1.2 percent since the beginning of the year, while the domestic gold price has been unpredictable.
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